Available in USOne goal. That’s all that separates Lionel Messi from sole ownership of the most prestigious individual record in men’s World Cup history. When Argentina kick off against Austria at 1:00 PM ET on June 22 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Messi — at 38, in what is almost certainly his final World Cup — sits level with Miroslav Klose’s all-time tally of 16 goals after his hat-trick against Algeria. For Canadian viewers who watched Messi’s North American chapter unfold in MLS, this is appointment television, and it has reshaped the betting card for the day.
The Match: Argentina Heavily Fancied
Argentina arrive unbeaten and riding an eight-match winning run. The defending champions are priced around -172 (decimal 1.58) to win, with the draw at +265 (3.65) and Austria out at +438 (5.38), as of roughly 10:00 AM ET on June 22 — indicative consensus pricing, so confirm at your book. Model probabilities back the favourite hard: roughly 65% Argentina, around 14% Austria, the rest to the draw. A win, by most permutations, virtually secures Argentina’s passage to the Round of 32.
Austria, though, should not be waved through. They’ve gone W-W-W-W-D across their last five and beat Jordan 3-1 in their opener. Captain David Alaba is fit and was pointedly respectful in the build-up:
"We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team." — David Alaba, Austria captain (Al Jazeera, June 21)
Argentina’s assistant coach Pablo Aimar returned the compliment, warning against complacency:
"Austria is a very tough team, as we’re seeing with the vast majority of the teams participating in this World Cup." — Pablo Aimar, Argentina assistant coach (Al Jazeera, June 21)
Austria will be without Christoph Baumgartner, ruled out of the tournament with a thigh injury that required surgery, though Stefan Posch is available after a broken jaw against Jordan (cleared to play with a brace). On the Argentina side, Gonzalo Montiel is a muscular doubt with Nahuel Molina expected to start, while Cristian Romero is available.
The Record: Messi vs Klose
The history is what makes this one special. Miroslav Klose scored 16 World Cup goals across four tournaments (2002–2014) to pass Ronaldo’s mark. Messi drew level in this tournament with his treble against Algeria — his first World Cup hat-trick — and now stands on the brink of becoming the outright all-time leading scorer in men’s World Cup history. That he could do it at 38, in a tournament being co-hosted across North America, gives the moment a fitting sense of farewell.
For betting purposes, the relevant market is Messi anytime scorer. He’s also a co-favourite for the tournament Golden Boot at +300 (decimal 4.00, as of June 20), level with Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane — see our Golden Boot odds breakdown for the full board.
My Read and the Value Pick
I’m not interested in Argentina at -172 as a straight result bet — there’s no edge in laying nearly 1.7-to-1 on a team you expect to win comfortably. The interesting plays are tied to the record:
- Messi anytime scorer. Against an Austria side that has to chase the game, Messi will get chances, and the motivation to claim the record outright is obvious. This is my favourite single play on the match.
- Argentina -1 (handicap). If you fancy a comfortable win rather than a backs-to-the-wall Austria rearguard, the spread offers a better price than the moneyline.
- Argentina win + over 2.5 goals. A builder that pays a fair price if the champions do what the model expects.
I’d avoid the Austria side entirely beyond a small draw-no-bet flier — they’re capable, but the gulf in this fixture is real, and Argentina at home in front of a North American crowd that adores Messi is a tough night for any underdog.
- Messi is one goal from breaking Klose’s all-time World Cup record of 16; he tied it with a hat-trick vs Algeria.
- Argentina are heavy favourites (-172 / 1.58) with a ~65% model win probability; Austria are +438 (5.38).
- The value sits in the record-chasing markets — Messi anytime scorer is my preferred play, not the moneyline.
- Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium, Arlington — an early-afternoon watch for Canadian fans.
Watching in Canada
The 1:00 PM ET kickoff is the friendliest slot of the day for Canadian viewers — a lunchtime watch coast to coast, available on the national broadcasters. If you’re staking, the markets above are live in CAD across the Canadian-facing pool, with Betibet and OnlySpins among the books carrying competitive anytime-scorer pricing. For the wider title picture, our World Cup 2026 odds hub and Argentina team profile have the context; for staking discipline, see the World Cup betting guide. Bet responsibly.
